Инвесткэп

21 мая 2022 21.05.2022

Фондовый рынок США падает уже 7 недель подряд

Впрочем, как и Биткоин. Какова вероятность, что следующая неделя будет тоже медвежей? Давайте посчитаем на примере подбрасывания монетки!

Вероятность что выпадет орел или решка, как известно, равна 50%. Если же подбрасывать монетку дважды, то вероятность что выпадет одна сторона монеты 2 раза подряд будет равна уже 25%. Ну и так далее, для 8 раз подряд посчитаем по следующей формуле:

0.5^8 x 100% = 0.39%

Ну а учитывая то что фондовый рынок сам по себе является бычьим (S&P500 прибавляет в среднем около 10% в год), эта вероятность будет даже меньше.

В общем, математика на следующей неделе явно на стороне быков.

Источник: investcaptain.ru

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Angry saler

21.05.2022

Какая-то теория вероятности уровня 9 класса))

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Миша Горностай

21.05.2022

Вероятность выпадения любой стороны монетки всегда равна 50 процентов. Хоть и 8 раз подряд одной и той же стороной.

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Дмитрий Кузнецов

21.05.2022

Я не понел: докупаем или фиксируем прибыль?

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