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Андрей Фролов

17 мая 2020 17.05.2020

Почему «прогноз» о том, что первым триллионером станет Безос, не очень точный

И почему мы про него не написали.

На неделе по медиа прокатилась новость о том, что Джефф Безос, самый богатый человек в мире, скоро станет триллионером. Даже были прогнозы, что он достигнет состояния в триллион долларов уже в 2026 году.

Была даже аналитика

Авторы исследования из компании Comparisun опираются на такую методологию: они берут смотрят на рост состояния за последние пять лет, прикидывают средний темп роста и накладывают его на текущие данные. То есть обнаружили, что состояние Безоса увеличивалось на 34% в год в последние пять лет, и предположили, оно будет расти на те же 34% в год и дальше.

Мы не написали об этом потому что сложно ориентироваться на анализ, который предполагает одинаковый рост чего-либо на очень долгий срок. В общем, не очень хочется оказаться на этой картинке слева:

Спасибо аккаунту Bad Econ Takes за идею.

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