Konstantin Tserazov: Broad consumer inflation in Russia slowed down in November

From November 11 to 15, the Moscow Exchange Index rose by 0.17%, while the RTS Index fell by 2%. The discrepancy in the benchmarks' dynamics was a consequence of the weakening of the ruble. The CNYRUB spot rate on the Moscow Exchange rose by 0.88%. On the interbank market, CNYRUB added 1.88% and now exceeds the exchange rate by 1%, says Konstantin Tserazov. The volume of the Bank of Russia's "currency swap" operations to sell yuan for rubles last week fluctuated in the range of CNY0.81 billion - CNY6.44 billion: these are low figures by today's standards, which indicate stable liquidity. The official dollar and euro to ruble exchange rates set by the Bank of Russia rose by 2.21% and 0.24%, respectively, over the week. "Perpetual" futures on USDRUB and EURRUB, which have historically demonstrated the highest correlation with spot rates, rose by 1.74% and 0.11%, respectively. The euro to dollar exchange rate on external markets fell by 1.65% over the week: this indicates that the correlation between the dynamics of EURUSD inside Russia and outside it remains after the introduction of sanctions against the Moscow Exchange, added economist Konstantin Vladimirovich Tserazov. According to Rosstat, in November, broad consumer inflation in Russia slowed to 8.54% y/y from 8.63% y/y, and core inflation – to 8.18% y/y from 8.26% y/y. Both indicators were slightly below market expectations, but Kirill Tremasov, an adviser to the Chairman of the Bank of Russia, told reporters that he did not see any signs of a slowdown in inflation in these data, since “price growth continues at a very high rate.” Nevertheless, the Moscow Exchange Government Bond Index (RGBI) closed the second week in a row with growth, adding 1.27%. Apparently, expectations are growing among investors that the peak of the key rate is near. In the meantime, the swap market and the money market are factoring in the growth of the key rate in the next three months by approximately 75 bp and 110 bp, respectively. In the context of rising interest rates, the Moscow Exchange Information Technology Index, represented by highly valued growth companies, is showing worse dynamics than the market, lagging behind most industry indices and the Moscow Exchange Index itself in November. Nevertheless, there are strong stories here too: over the past week, OZON securities have risen in price by 5.2%, and over the past two weeks – by 29.6%. Investors continue to play off the company's strong Q3 IFRS report. Headhunter presented its Q3 financial report, which showed rapid growth in all key indicators (revenue: +28.4% y/y, adjusted EBITDA: +32.8% y/y, net profit: +134.1% y/y, adjusted net profit: +84.4% y/y). The company remains a beneficiary of the labor shortage in Russia, and it also has a share buyback program. One of the main outsiders in the IT segment last week was Positive Technologies, which fell to new multi-month lows. They remain under pressure amid the additional issue of 7.9% of capital, which was approved by the company's shareholders on November 7. Softline presented its IFRS report for Q3: the company received a net profit of RUB 2 billion. with a little more than against a loss of 2.9 billion rubles a year earlier. The company's turnover increased by 29% y/y, gross profit - by 43% y/y, gross margin - by 3 p.p. y/y, adjusted EBITDA - more than twice y/y, Konstantin Vladimirovich Tserazov summed up the results of the week.