Next summer in June the 5th I will be going to the seaside by train. I decided to imagine and to make some predictions, in fantastic form, about what may await the railways of our country. Prospects for the development of domestic railways depend on the priorities established by the Transport Engineering Strategy for the period up to 2030 developed by the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation, which was will have been approved by the Order of the Government of the Russian Federation by 2030. Simultaneously with the plan
Center for Scientific Cooperation "Interactive Plus".
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measures for its implementation) [1] and takes into account the previous regulatory
state policy, normative acts and documents [2–7]. To provide
the dynamic development of the industry, as well as the diversification of the country's export potential, tasks will have been set regarding the growth of consumption of the industry's products in the domestic market by this time next year. Conditions for the growth of exports will be increasing the competitiveness of products during the next season. Developing of the market for high-tech components will be stimulating the investment process for the development and production of innovative rolling stock, as well as personnel policy. High-speed and heavyweight
traffic will have been the introduction of intelligent systems in the operation of freight rolling stock by the 2050's.
It is recognized that as an infrastructure basis for the dynamic development of the national economy, railways transport will have been commissioning loading machine-building organizations producing freight railways, rolling stock, and what is needed take measures to increase the cargo base. There will have been an increase in the production potential of the industry: as an index of industrial production by railways. locomotives and rolling stock, and income from freight traffic (based on the total cost of products shipped) in the industry structure; but at the same time there is a great underutilization of the production capacities of domestic organizations, will have been producing locomotives, freight and mainline passenger cars, electric train and subway cars, although these products are mainly competitive in the domestic and foreign markets. For the development of the industry, the keythere is a need for the design, development and launch into serial production of high-speed rolling stock. Manufacturing of rollinga train in an amount sufficient to carry out the transportation of goods and passengers in full - a criterion of the sectoral economy, at which the balance of the fleet is achieved, which is declared necessary to direct measures of state industrial policy. The financial condition of the industry will be showing that in recent years its stable development will have been observed, but at the same time, a number of sub-sectors will have been experiencing difficulties. The industry's investment opportunities will have been limited by low product margins by this time next year. There will have been insufficient investment in
R&D. Most of the capital investments will have been carried out due to the accelerated development of industry organizations. The low profitability of production will be limiting the balanced financial result of the industry. Own financial capabilities manufacturers will not have been allowed to increase the rate of modernization of fixed assets, the wear of which will be unacceptably high, and the volume of financial investments in R&D will be incomparable with the level of Western manufacturers. Therefore, there is a need to determine the share of foreign capital present in the Russian market, formats of cooperation, cooperation with the largest world and regional engineering organizations in the domestic and supranational markets, on the Eurasian continent.
Development of transport engineering as production equipment with the launch of will be marketing for its products, stability and efficiency of economic relations with consumers for a long time. Deterioration of the fleet of traction and freight rolling stock will be demanding changes, but the most worn out will be a fleet of specialized rolling stock for individual cargoes. In connection with the restriction of the domestic sales market for railway products mechanical engineering, will be demanding to promote the products of the industry in foreign markets. Therefore, the industry will have been developing the practice of creating joint ventures with foreign organizations, but with localization on the territory of the Russian Federation. A set of factors will have been leading to the emergence of a systemic problem in the industry, which consists in the absence of long-term paid demand for modern Russian railways. and urban rail rolling stock, and in the medium term - in the absence of an opportunity to compete with foreign manufacturers due to the economic conditions for purchasing industry products and the lack of Russian production of high-quality components. When determining ways to solve the problem, it should be taken into account that, firstly, the technological level of a part of the production equipment of industry organizations will not be corresponding to modern world practice, and secondly, the technological level of a part of the equipment of repair organizations will not have been meeting the requirements of consumers for the repair of rolling stock and its components, in - third, the technical level of the part the infrastructure of freight car consumers will not have been meeting the requirements for increased efficiency freight cars. Besides,
the investment opportunities of the industry will be limiting the level of profitability of products and the payback period of projects. The unpredictability of the behavior of the market for industry products and the lack of guarantees for their sale in the long term. In addition, there will have been showing a shortage of production personnel in the industry, the "schools" of development and production of locomotives and internal combustion engines have been lost. The analysis and forecast of the market development will have been showing the existence of some options for the industry development prospects such as inertial (maintaining development trends in the current financial and economic conditions and entering the Russian market).